The modern concept of climate change evolved from what was previously referred to as global warming. While widespread temperature changes are an important symptom of climate change, there are many other lingering affects of anthropogenic climate change. When discussing climate change ;however, we should begin by investigating temperature changes at home.
In this first graph, one can begin to see the trend that will be discussed throughout much of this report: widespread but inconsistent warming. In every month, the average daily miminimum temperature is increasing while this is not the case for the average maximum temperature. For instance, these linear regressions estimate that the January minimum temperature increases about 1 degree every 5 years while the maximum temperature will increase 1 degree every 10 years. This is also the case for June, a month extremely different in climatology from July, as its minimum increases about 1 degree every 8 years, whereas the maximum temperature is shown to decrease. This data shows the true way previous climate change hides from us, and why global warming is a slight misnomer.
From this heat map, the national trend of increasing minimum temperature becomes quite evident. The reason you may have heard of 'Greenhouse Gasses' and their impact on climate change is due to the fact that these substances act as insulators within the environment reflecting emmited infrared radiation back to the Earth. Each morning, the minimum temperature occurs at night when the face of the Earth is emmiting energy while not absorbing energy from the sun. This energy defecit yields a situation in which the temperature of the Earth continuously falls until the sun begins to shine on the earth again. In the presence of greenhouse gases, some of the energy that would have been emitted into space is reflected back to the Earth, leading to less nightly cooling. When viewing this heat map, one state conspicuously stands out.
The trends shown in Nevada, while of similar shape to those in Wisconsin, are much greater in magnitude and much more forboding as to our climatogical future. The station that collected this data over the last 50 years is located in Reno, Nevada, one of the states largest population centers. Reno is situated within a basin between two mountain ranges, meaning it is in a supposed weather shadow, in which it is not affected as strongly by winds or moisture. This lack of outside winds means the city has the potential to become a bowl filled with CO2 and under greenhouse gasses. The chart projects August minimum temperatures to rise by 1/3 of a degree every year, converging quickly on the maximum temperature. This provides a troubling perspective of what the future of climates like Reno's might hold.
In this animation, there are several trends to identify with regards to geographical clusters of similar temperature. Coastal areas like the Pacific Coast, New England, the Great Lakes, and the Gulf Coast, all tend to show similar temperature changes across the states with whom thet share a coast. Inland, southwestern states are warming at the highest clip, while plains states often tend to cool, showing a universal manner of discussing climate change is not appropriate to the United States.
This image helps to show the seasonal differences in Rates of Change of minimum and maximum temperature. Each bar represents the average rate of change in throughout the entire continental United States using data from 1970-2019. January, often the coldest month of the year, is heating at the highest rate. This is consistent with the idea of supression of cooling due to greenhouse gases. Nationwide, November shows the most interesting outlier. Minimum temperatures in November are barely increasing, with a rate of change around .01 degrees F per year, while the maximum temperature is increasing at a rate of .05 degrees F per year. Should this pattern continue, one would expect average daily temperatures to diverge leading to large daily temperature changes. While it is encouraging that November minimum temperatures are relatively stable, large temperature swings are associated with severe precipitation, which could endanger many.
Wisconsin falls and winters have not been characterized by extreme changes in precipitation. Autumn and Winter months show consistent but gradual increases in monthly rainfall with slopes around an increase of .01 inches of rain every year. May and June show the highest increases in precipitation with increases of .03 and .07 inches of rain per year respectively. This is associated with an increase in summertime convective thunderstorms. This data is collected in Madison, Wi, which is between two small lakes, while also being within the meteorological influence of Lake Michigan. Warmer morning waters due to higher minimum temperatures lead to the rising of moist air off the lakes causing daytime development of thunderstorms. These storms very in severity, however the most severe can be accompanied by hail and lightning which can cause great danger.
The primary trend on display in this video is the geographical differences in precipitation beteween the eastern and western United States. As the animation progresses, the disparity becomces greater as precipitation increases in the southern United States and in the northeast United States. Rain in the midwest remains relatively constant, as it is a largely a function of isolated water bodies in the great lakes, wheras other regions are affected by the cycling of energy by the oceans. The reason the Pacific coast does not echo other coastal regions is the fact that it is on the eastern end of the Pacific Ocean, meaning cold air is carried by the water, as opposed to warmer air, as opposed to that of the gulf stream. Precipitation is not the only manner in which the weather effects people. I will next analyze other extreme weathers in the United States.
This graph shows an interesting trend within the occurence of tornados. When a tornado occurs, it is rated on a scale from F0 to F5 based on the maximum speed of its sustained winds. This chart shows that the strongest magnitudes; F5, F4, F3, and F2, have remained relatively stable in the 25 years from 1996 to 2019. The data does show a clear increase in F0 tornados, with mid-90s levels in the 100s increasing greatly to a peak over 1200, while normalizing around 600 F0 tornados a year. Additonally, the F1 tornados show an increase from about 200 tornados a year to peaks around 500 to 600 tornados per year; however it is possible this is due to simple variability versus a climatological change.
This figure helps to further expand on the tornado magnitudes showing there is little correlation between tornados per year and climate change.This paired with the previous suggests a weakening of tornadic systems, as storms that once would produce an F3 storm are less likely to do so, meaning they have shifted in magnitude. Other dangerous events, however, do show clear increases. Flash flood reports are increasing at a rate of 46.28 per year, and a correlation coefficient around .5 suggests this is a moderate relationship that should be investigated. Coastal floods are increasing at a rate of 8.39 per year, with a similarly strong correlation. Dust storms and wildfires, which are symptoms of drought or dry periods are increasing as well. Unlike these other items, blizzards and hail show little correlation; however, investigating the graphs suggests a non linear correlation could be fitted to the data. These events are all serious; carrying the potential to destroy lives and property. If climate change is not taken with the seriousness it deserves, countless lives could be destroyed.
The above graphic represents the 2020 iteration of the annual Climate Change Performance Index, produced by experts in the fields of Climatology and Energy. Each of 60 developed nations are assigned a score from 0 to 100 based on greenhouse gas emissions, renewable energy, energy use, and climate policy. The current highest rated country right now is Sweden, with a score of 75.77. The United States ranks dead last, with a score of 18.6. The fossil fuel economy of the United States contribute heavily to the global volume of greenhouse gasses. The fossil fuel industry exerts great influence on American policy, which in hand contributes to the lowest policy score in the entire world. Recent actions such as the withdrawal from the Paris Climate Agreement and extreme cutting of EPA emission restrictions indicate the callousness and dangerous nature of the current American climate viewpoint.
After reading this report, I hope you understand the great danger that climate change imparts. Greehouse gasses affect weather on the entire globe and they are increasing at an alarming rate. Increases in flooding and fires, coupled with a near universal trend of changing temperature suggest our current trajectory will create an unstable and dangerous climate with the potential to kill people and destroy property. There is a good reason why the United States is last in the climate change performance index and I would ask that you consider how you might do your part to impact the American environmental attitude. Vote for those who will support a strong climate action plan and help to root out the vast misinformation that obscures many's view of our world.